Well, I m sure i’m not alone in saying that tonight’s match was thoroughly entertaining, both to watch and to trade.
I thought Liverpool were too short at 1.37 pre game and backed them to be winning at ht. Greened up after N’Gog’s spectacular finish nicely, and backed over 2.5 as well.When Liverpool went 2-1 down i backed them in the match odds market but failed to green up and trade out when the controversial penalty as converted. I was positive they’d get the winner, but alas it never came. Nevermind.
Also traded a little on another action packed game in the U17 World Cup, and i would’ve made much more had the market not suspended midway through the 1st half due to a loss of picture. By the time it came back Spain were also down to 1o men! Still very fun, and i am now over the target of £700 profit. In fact im half way to £800, so a new short term goal will be £850 for now. I think if I advance in £100 ‘ticks’ it’ll be relatively easy to keep up the good discipline.
On another note, a comment was left on the previous post by wjwskill, who advised that the unders price was too high for the Liverpool game. It then came in to 2 from 2.28 in a matter of hours leading up to the game, and i am interested to know how one would go about calling which way a price will move as more money piles into a market. In this example from what i understand, punters came in and kept backing the unders, sending the price down.
Im very interested in pre game trading, although i dont think ill ever be able to resist picking spots in play while watching a game, but at least with pre game you’re not required to watch endless matches of football!
Comments always welcome people. Screenshot
Hi There,…. the news that Torres and Gerrard wouldn’t start was released at about 640 yesterday evening and I’d imagine that this helped to drive down the <2.5 price.
great blog,
best of luck
David
David, thanks for the comment. I recognized this as a factor in the price change, but there is also something to be said for the way a price moves as more money comes into the market, from punters as opposed to traders. i will be doing research and collecting data on this when i can, ill post with my porgress soon!
ta
Cheers for the name drop nft. If you’re interested in talking more about footy trading, drop me an email.
The change last night was definitely linked to the team news, but you will have found that the price on unders comes in alot on some games (NOT all I must add). Alot of (boring) traders who are backing unders and getting out after 5 minutes want to get the best possible price before the start of the match and are willing to take a price that isn’t value. As a result a lot of big backers of over goals are now avoiding getting on pre-match and instead waiting for 5 minutes because the liquiditiy is good and the price much better. You can also get a feel for the game in terms of tactics and conditions etc… With few people backing overs and alot of people on the unders in the couple of hours before the game the price is likely to come in, but always beware of team news. All in all, I think last night was an extreme case.
How big an effect are Gerrard and Torres on the goals market?
Since the start of 2007/08, when they both play 60% of Liverpool’s games see +2.5 goals. When one, or both, don’t play it drops to 45%.
Can I contact you by email? I have an opportunity for betting bloggers I would like to run by you.
You can reach me on david@golfstateofmind.com
Thanks, hope to hear from you.
David