Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg

good luck if you’re on this one too.

I thought Liverpool were too short at 1.37 pre game and backed them to be winning at ht. Greened up after N’Gog’s spectacular finish nicely, and backed over 2.5 as well.When Liverpool went 2-1 down i backed them in the match odds market but failed to green up and trade out when the controversial penalty as converted. I was positive they’d get the winner, but alas it never came. Nevermind.

Also traded a little on another action packed game in the U17 World Cup, and i would’ve made much more had the market not suspended midway through the 1st half due to a loss of picture. By the time it came back Spain were also down to 1o men! Still very fun, and i am now over the target of £700 profit. In fact im half way to £800, so a new short term goal will be £850 for now. I think if I advance in £100 ‘ticks’ it’ll be relatively easy to keep up the good discipline.

On another note, a comment was left on the previous post by wjwskill, who advised that the unders price was too high for the Liverpool game. It then came in to 2 from 2.28 in a matter of hours leading up to the game, and i am interested to know how one would go about calling which way a price will move as more money piles into a market. In this example from what i understand, punters came in and kept backing the unders, sending the price down.

Im very interested in pre game trading, although i dont think ill ever be able to resist picking spots in play while watching a game, but at least with pre game you’re not required to watch endless matches of football!

Comments always welcome people. Screenshot

My target when  i started was to be on £700 at the close of the weekend, and by Saturday evening i had already shot past this point to my delight! Sunday was a bit more tricky though, and i was annoyed with myself for not sticking with my Chelsea prediction – as United kept pressing i backed them at ht! Oh well! Did the same with the Stoke game actually, need to have more faith in myself!

Interesting to see the early results of the poll, most people (although its close) trade the overs markets – funnily enough most of my trading this weekend was trading on goals too, however my records show that my only significantly profitable market is the match odds. The others are slightly up or down – i’ll provide detailed results and charts in a new section soon.

Also had some great luck with X Factor – laid Jedward to go out before it went to deadlock at 1.07! Not for too much but still! Also congrats to the Hayemaker!

All in all, i’m happy with my progress with the footy. I complained recently that consistency was becoming an issue, and although it’s not fully ironed out yet, i am getting better. At the moment i am keeping myself grounded by withdrawing down to a set amount at the end of each day. It’s very easy to get carried away with big numbers as ur bank grows, and a slip up and you have thrown away money that would hurt! But I hope that by the new year to be confident and successful enough to be trading with larger sums, while maintaining my strike rate and % profit. Either way i’m actually making gambling work which is definitely a first! Like I said in my previous post, I am a happy chappy.

Any thoughts on tonight’s game? Liverpool without Torres and Gerrard is a possibility and at 1.35 maybe look a little short?

The most exciting tie i think for Saturday is the Madrid derby, and with Athletico on pretty dismal league form and Real under mounting pressure to perform there should be plenty of fireworks. Just hope that AM show up for this!

Another biggie is Chelsea v Man Utd on Sunday and I reckon this will be a relatively easy home win. United havent looked good this season for me and Chelsea, much as i hate to say it, are playing glorious football.

I’m gonna be setting up a poll as well so please take part, i’m quite interested to see what markets people prefer to trade on in general. Here’s a screenshot, couple more like this and i’ll a happy chappy come Sunday evening:

Barcelona could not capitalize on their 75% possession for most of the game, and Inter left it too late for me! From Tuesday i was still a bit miffed with Chelsea’s defending and  QPR’s inability to close a game off, and the old me would have let a few bets ride on Wednesday night. The perfect example where it’s always good to follow your own rules was with Liverpool, where i greened up hugely.

Very late on at 0-0 i backed the ‘pool and when Babel’s screamer hit the back of the net i was very tempted to let the bet run for an extra £25. I greened up however and when Lyon equalized I had the biggest grin on my face and gave myself a pat on the back!

Looking at Monday’s result, I layed the draw for what i think is the last time. The numbers dont stack up for me, and like a lot of other traders have told me it is a losing system. Currently most of my profit comes from picking a team i think are looking good and greening up once they score. That, alongside the fluctuating performance of over/unders trading, is what keeps this boat afloat!

I have been mincing around the 100% profit mark for a while now and i havent been able to keep a steady profitable run going it seems. I think it’s largely to do with concentration and i will be trading only one game at a time (apart form 3pm Saturdays) to try and guarantee profitable results. Screenshot:

I had somewhat of a crazy one trading wise, with bouts of terrible discipline eventually having their effect on my overall p/l. I started very well on Saturday with the Arsenal game and the 3 oclock Premier League games. Was a bit annoyed with Liverpool – I had backed them at 1-0 down and then laid off when they equalized nicely. Then at ht i layed the draw suspecting a goal was coming and i had exited for an overall loss a minute before Fulham scored! Nevermind, the one thing that taught me about myself is that i have stopped tilting when something like that happens. I just look at my overall p/l and soldier on!

everything else that day went well with results going my way, but i messed up badly as the results show on the Bilbao v Athletico match. After redding up on the match odds  having backed AM, i looked at the overs market and backed over2.5 for a far larger amount than i usually do. The game was end to end and there were some great chances and i decided to let it run for a bit into the 2nd half. Anyway long story short the goal didnt come and even though i exited eventually it was for an unecessarily large amount. The thing is with this bet that i wasn’t chasing a loss because i was still nicely up on the day, it was just poor staking and poor timing. I live and learn but a very annoying end to the month, meaning all my week’s good work ruined and left October in the red!

Onto Sunday now and i was trading much more level headed. i wont bore you with details but all i will say is damn Shay Given! That penalty wouldve been the difference between a good start to November and my best single day ever!

So a rocky weekend, but ill take the positives from it – a good, profitable start to the month and most of all i had fun doing it!

No English games on tonight and there is something annoyign baout watching live football on the Betfair site – why is that bloody window limited to that tiny size? But knowing me i’ll jump right into the Inter game, let’s hope it’s worth it!

Good luck all

An £11.41 goal!

It’s getting increasingly hard to come up with post titles the more i blog and i don’t like just using the date! Feel free to post any suggestions!

Meanwhile the steamroller (!) which is my bank made another nice sized move forwards. Yesterday was the first night of two for Carling Cup matches this week, and also had some U17 World Cup action earlier. During the early Argentina game, i managed a few ticks on the unders market, and i was lucky to dodge 2 goals in 2 minutes from an impressive Argentinian side. I do enjoy this method of trading, but i’d be very nervous i think if i was using larger stakes – but then i guess it’s all in proportion to your bank. At the beginning of the month i withdrew my bank down to £700 so as to not get carried away and i think it’s crucial for beginners to not raise the stakes too soon.

The Brazil game was 0-0 at half time and i layed the draw and greened when Mexico scored – i do like this twist on the system, but you have to have a good feel on the game, theres no use laying the draw if its been a dull, scrappy affair.

Now on to Carling Cup and Man United’s early goal helped me out having backed over 2.5 goals. I don’t like doing this anymore to be honest, not from the get go anyway as the price moves too quickly, but my poor discipline didnt bite me in the ass for once! At half time i backed over 1.5 once i had a better feel of the game and it paid off, and also did a tiny trade on under 3.5.

My other views for the evening didnt really go as planned exactly. I thought swines Blackburn would struggle and layed them and exited for a loss at 1-0. Turned out to be a goal fest. Also didn’t see many goals in the Pompey `game and backed under 2.5, and once again i was redding up at 1-0. Another goals galore game!

On the other hand i fancied Spurs to do over Everton who have a terrible track record in the League Cup and are going through tough times, and i was proved right!

You can’t win them all, but as long as you end up green then it’s all good. Slowly making this month seem less of a waste of time!

For this evening I cant see Man City not demolishing Scunthorpe who concede an average of 2+ goals away this season, but as it’s not live on tv it will be hard to gauge. Bolton may be good for a small back at 10 against Chelsea, and as far as the top 4 clash goes, well….anything goes i guess, but i’d be tempted to back Arsenal here. Screenshot time:

Reading are terrible at the moment and it looks like their manager will be getting the sack anytime soon. I expected a Leicester win and I layed Reading, but a dominant display for most of the first half had me worried so i exited that and layed the draw at a price of 2.78. Just before the half ended Leicester broke and got the game’s only goal and i greened up pretty nicely. Thought there was more in it and backed the overs for a while before recouping some of that loss in the unders. I just don’t like hoping for nothing to happen, has me too nervous to watch!

Also did a quick trade on the overs for the Benefica match, which ended up being a goal fest!

So, happy to be in profit then, and hopefully the rest of this week can see me on my way to posting a decent figure for the month, with my taregt being to at least match August. Screenshot:

Like i said I wasnt available on Saturday to trade but i took a couple of small punts and let them run. I fancied Pompey to beat Hull which didnt turn out, and backed QPR to beat Derby which they did after being 2-0 down!

Sunday was where the money started to roll in quickly. Missed the United v Liverpool game which im happy about, seemed like a toughy to trade. I backed Arsenal to beat West Ham and greened up after the first goal. Can’t believe they let 2-0 slip away!

Then on to La Liga and goals galore! Backed Valencia to beat Almeria and David Villa helped me out with an early 2nd half goal. Barcelona being Barcelona hauled a huge 6 goals against Zaragoza and with me backing overs at different stages, the green kept coming in. Also backed AC at 1-0 down to beat Chievo but traded out for a loss and as it turns out they won 2-1 eventually! More nerve required i think!

So what does this mean overall? It means i am now only £15.24 down for the month which is great considering my low point. My target for October as I have said before is to be level at least, and i now have a week of Carling Cup and Saturdays PL games to get the job done.

Once again over 100% up total and i’m flying high confidence wise. I need to maintain the concentration when trading and picking games and make sure i keep my goals in sight.

Screenshot time….